WASHINGTON -- Almost 470,000 additional New Jersey residents wouldn't have health insurance coverage under the House Republican-passed bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, according to a report released Thursday.
More than half of the 469,500 residents -- 246,000 -- would not be covered due to the American Health Care Act's $834 billion cut to Medicaid, which would end the extra federal funding for new enrollees in states like New Jersey that expanded the program under the current health care law.
The report by the Center for American Progress, a research group founded by former Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, was the first state-by-state analysis of the most recent Congressional Budget Office study of the House Republicans' health care bill.
"It confirms all of our fears that even with the bells and whistles on the bill, the legislation is a disaster," said Ray Castro, director of health policy for New Jersey Policy Perspective, a progressive research group. "It's going to be much worse in New Jersey because we have such a large Medicaid expanded program."
The CBO said the bill, embraced by President Donald Trump though he had promised during the campaign not to cut Medicaid, would leave 23 million more Americans without coverage by 2026, including 14 million the first year.
It also said that provisions added by New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-3rd Dist.) would increase rates for sicker individuals and leave some with pre-existing conditions unable to buy affordable insurance that would cover their illnesses.
MacArthur's amendment paved the way for the bill's passage by allowing states to request waivers that would allow insurers to offer fewer benefits to policyholders and raise rates for those with pre-existing conditions.
Most of the Medicaid spending reductions would fund tax cuts for corporations and wealthy Americans and tax breaks such as enhanced Health Savings Accounts that are primarily used by upper-income taxpayers.
MacArthur insisted that the House Republican bill was needed to fix health care.
"The Affordable Care Act is on the brink of collapse and no bureaucratic government report can change that," MacArthur said. "While CBO projections on enrollment numbers remain in doubt, it's clear that the MacArthur amendment will bring down premiums and make health care more affordable."
Chris Martin, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, made a similar argument.
"While Democrats are content with Obamacare premiums increasing by an average of 105 percent since 2013, House Republicans took action to provide families access to affordable, quality health care," Martin said. "Insurers continue to flee the Obamacare death spiral at a shocking rate and voters understand the law has been an abject failure."
The CBO, though, said that the law was not failing, the insurance market was stabilizing in most places, and increased subsidies covered the costs of increasing premiums for most policyholders.
Insurers are pulling out of some markets in part because Republicans want to drop the requirement that everyone buy insurance and Trump has threatened to end payments that lower co-payments and deductibles for low-income Americans, the CBO said.
Following the bill's passage, the two Washington publications that track congressional races, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report, rated close to two dozen House Republicans nationally as more vulnerable.
They included MacArthur and Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11th Dist.), who voted in favor of the Republican bill, and Rep. Leonard Lance (R-7th Dist.), who didn't.
"It's more than about health care," said one of the race raters, Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. "It's about the president's job approval ratings. It's about instances of Democratic enthusiasm. And it's the historic pattern of midterm elections."
Still, twice as many U.S. voters in a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday said they would be less likely to back a member of Congress who supported the Republican repeal bill than one who voted no.
According to the poll, 44 percent said they were less likely to vote for a lawmaker who backed the legislation, while just 20 percent said they would more likely. Another 31 percent said the issue won't make a difference.
Views of the Republican bill ran close to 3 to 1 against it, with 57 percent opposing the legislation and 20 percent supporting it.
"Advisory to Republicans who support the replacement for Obamacare: Backing this bill could be very hazardous to your political health," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. "What was heralded as a cure for a failing plan could have toxic side effects."
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cheered the findings.
"This poll further exposes that a vote for the Republican repeal and ripoff bill is devastating in the eyes of voters," DCCC spokesman Evan Lukaske said.
Besides Lance, Reps. Frank LoBiondo (R-2nd Dist.) and Chris Smith (R-4th Dist.) joined all five Garden State House Democrats in voting against the GOP legislation.
"It's still too early to know how it's playing in key races and it's not even clear health care will be an issue in 2018," Gonzales said. "The indications we have so far is it's going to be a good Democratic cycle but it's too early to know which districts are truly vulnerable."
The poll of 1,404 voters was conducted May 17-23 and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant or on Facebook. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook