Given a complex $33 billion budget, economic and other uncertainties (e.g.,Superstorm Sandy), it is unsurprising that the Office of Legislative Services (OLS) and successive administrations should end up estimating slightly different revenues. The difference has not been more than one percent in any of the last eight years, hardly enough to set off the war of words between the two institutions (or one would think).

The Office of Legislative Services (OLS) told legislators today that it projects $637 million less revenue than the proposed 2014 budget calls for. While OLS’s more cautious projections are not surprising, the difference provides a framework in which the budget discussions will unfold over the next few months.

Between now and the constitutional budget deadline of June 30, there are a number of events that will shape the final Fiscal Year 2014 budget; here are some key ones to watch.

Budget collections continued a recent uptick in February – but in order to hit the latest, lower budgeted projections, growth will have to be even more robust in the remaining four months of the fiscal year.

As the governor renews his attacks on independent critics of his budget forecasts, a key question remains: What “expectations” is the governor referring to?

This week the administration finally conceded the point independent analysts had been making for months: this year’s budget was built on overly optimistic growth projections, and there won’t be enough revenue to hit the targets. However, even after lowering the projections, they still may be too optimistic.

As Gov. Christie puts the finishing touches on his proposed budget for the next fiscal year, the uptick in January revenue collections is clearly good news after months of the state taking in less than it expected. But in no way should this be taken as New Jersey being out of the woods.

Now we know, at least now we know more than we knew before. In the last few weeks, five reports have been issued which clarify trends in the state’s financial condition, but raise important questions, not all of which will be answered in the governor’s upcoming budget message. Most of the new information comes from the administration itself, with the Office of Legislative Services (OLS) and Rutgers chipping in.

While December’s collections were slightly above the administration’s projections for the month, the year-to-date collections are still $426 million (4.1 percent) below its projections. If this trend continues through June 2013 the revenue shortfall would exceed $1 billion for the fiscal year, in addition to the $123 million shortfall the administration acknowledged for FY 2012.

In the absence of any official information from the Christie administration on the magnitude of this year’s potential revenue shortfall, it is helpful to look at a few possible scenarios.